All you need to know? NOT!

AlwaysWrite

Well-Known Member
#1
If you watch The Weather Channel, they frequently say "Stay tuned to the Weather Channel for all you need to know about Hurricane Dorian" … but although those words sound good, THEY DON'T TELL YOU WHERE THE STORM IS GOING TO HIT!

Their forecasts keep changing, and their "cone of uncertainty" covers the entire state of Florida. When are they going to inform everyone where landfall is going to be? An hour before it hits?
 

AlwaysWrite

Well-Known Member
#5
Last time I watched the news it looked like it was headed directly at you, Bill. Be safe!!
Dear Greg T:

Not really, for several reasons. Even if the worst-case scenario for us -- on the west coast of Florida -- were to take place, in order to make a direct hit, the storm would have to cross the state, and that would take nearly a full day from landfall on the east coast, and that would weaken the storm greatly, at least down to a Cat 1, if not a tropical storm.

The storm has slowed down, and it is going to affect Florida at least a day later than original forecasts indicated, and that will cause the eventual northward turn to come later, decreasing the likelihood of that "worst-case scenario" (for us) to nearly zero.

Nevertheless, thanks for offering your best wishes.
 

AlwaysWrite

Well-Known Member
#8
I don't know why The Weather Channel -- along with many other forecasters -- have much credibility when they are so frequently far off the mark.

Two years ago, the "experts" were saying that Hurricane Irma was going to pound southeast Florida, and ALL of their reporters -- the ones you see on the beaches -- were in Miami and other locations on the east coast of Florida. It wasn't until the day of landfall that they finally (and belatedly) sent reporters to the west coast locations.

One of my close friends and his wife took the Weather Channel's advice and came rushing over to my side of the state, and they even checked into a hotel over here. But almost as soon as they arrived, the Weather Channel said that the storm was going to make a near-direct hit on our location on the west coast, so they immediately headed back to their Port St. Lucie residence on the east coast.

Then, we were bracing for a direct hit on the predicted morning of landfall, only to find out -- AT 5 P.M. -- just before landfall that the storm was now headed down the middle of the state, which meant that we weren't subject to significant impact at all.


Now, back to the current situation. THE WEATHER CHANNEL "EXPERTS" SHOULD HAVE KNOWN (and calculated) that the slowdown of the storm would lead to a more-eastward (AND EARLIER) turn to the north. They had forecast the northward turn to take place on Monday, which was the day of predicted landfall. But those idiots never factored into the equation that with the storm due to arrive a day later that THE TURN WOULD COME BEFORE IT EVEN HIT LAND.

And to think that some of those idiots at The Weather Channel are making big bucks to make expert predictions. Instead, all they tell us is WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING at any given point in time, but they are all over the place as to what is actually GOING to happen.
 

livespive

Well-Known Member
#9
It’s like insurance AW, better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it.

You are dealing with Mother Nature, sure we have a lot of science, but in the end she is going to do what she wants to do.
 

AlwaysWrite

Well-Known Member
#10
It’s like insurance AW, better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it.

You are dealing with Mother Nature, sure we have a lot of science, but in the end she is going to do what she wants to do.
Dear livespive:

What you say is true, but why couldn't the so-called weather "experts" realize that the original landfall was going to be at least a day later (because of the storm's slowdown)? And because of that, the storm's turn to the north would take place at roughly the same time … BUT because of the "slowdown", that turn will come BEFORE (rather than after) a potential landfall. The "experts" pay too much attention to computer models without using their brains.


Hurricane forecasting is not as difficult as the "experts" make it out to be. Anyone who worked with me at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune knows that with regard to all of those major hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 -- including Charley, Matthew, Wilma, Katrina and Rita -- I FORECAST THE EXACT LANDFALL on all of them when the storms were at least 3 days out. And I know of NO ONE ELSE who, three days in advance, claimed that Charley would make the right-turn into the Peace River area (as it actually did).

My expert forecasting can be verified by at least two dozen of my Facebook friends, including one who has been a longtime television weather anchor.
 

Greg T.

The Jazz Singer
#12
Isn't it hilarious that the experts cant predict the path of a storm within a 24 hour period, but they know the entire climate will change in 12 years?
 

Djarum300

Well-Known Member
#14
I don't know why The Weather Channel -- along with many other forecasters -- have much credibility when they are so frequently far off the mark.

Two years ago, the "experts" were saying that Hurricane Irma was going to pound southeast Florida, and ALL of their reporters -- the ones you see on the beaches -- were in Miami and other locations on the east coast of Florida. It wasn't until the day of landfall that they finally (and belatedly) sent reporters to the west coast locations.

One of my close friends and his wife took the Weather Channel's advice and came rushing over to my side of the state, and they even checked into a hotel over here. But almost as soon as they arrived, the Weather Channel said that the storm was going to make a near-direct hit on our location on the west coast, so they immediately headed back to their Port St. Lucie residence on the east coast.

Then, we were bracing for a direct hit on the predicted morning of landfall, only to find out -- AT 5 P.M. -- just before landfall that the storm was now headed down the middle of the state, which meant that we weren't subject to significant impact at all.

Now, back to the current situation. THE WEATHER CHANNEL "EXPERTS" SHOULD HAVE KNOWN (and calculated) that the slowdown of the storm would lead to a more-eastward (AND EARLIER) turn to the north. They had forecast the northward turn to take place on Monday, which was the day of predicted landfall. But those idiots never factored into the equation that with the storm due to arrive a day later that THE TURN WOULD COME BEFORE IT EVEN HIT LAND.

And to think that some of those idiots at The Weather Channel are making big bucks to make expert predictions. Instead, all they tell us is WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING at any given point in time, but they are all over the place as to what is actually GOING to happen.
Weather channel makes few predictions. The predictions come from the national hurricane center. The cone of uncertainty comes from the spaghetti models from various research groups that use super computers. Some of the models take hours just to make one run through the computer.

They flubbed irma badly. Mathew and Michael was well predicted and for that most part, so has this one assuming it does make that north turn. If it doesn't, then yeah.


The difference between a hurricane hitting Miami vs Vero Beach in terms of predictions isn't terrible at all. People just don't like to be inconvenienced.

I say quit his belly aching and let me know when an EF5 barrels down just a mile north of you and you have 15 minutes, if your lucky, to get safe.
 

9andaWiggle

Addicted Member
#15
That's why I like the guys on the Space City Weather website that covers the Houston area (although they usually cover systems with potential to impact Fla./east coast too). They typically will state what they think will happen and why, and generally are pretty clear about when there is uncertainty in the forecast and why.
 

9andaWiggle

Addicted Member
#16
Stay safe Bill, hoping the best for everyone out east. These things suck. Personally, I hate hurricanes worse than I hate tornadoes (I've experienced both). At least with a tornado it hits and leaves quick, it doesn't torment for days before taking a few more days to destroy whatever it hits.
 

AlwaysWrite

Well-Known Member
#18
Stay safe Bill, hoping the best for everyone out east. These things suck. Personally, I hate hurricanes worse than I hate tornadoes (I've experienced both). At least with a tornado it hits and leaves quick, it doesn't torment for days before taking a few more days to destroy whatever it hits.
Dear 9andaWiggle:

Thanks a lot, but I'm on the west coast of Florida, and we've been out of the "cone" for two days, and we wouldn't have been hammered even had the storm come directly over us. To get to my area, the storm would have had to make landfall somewhere in the Palm Beach area (across the state), and it would have taken about a full day to get to us, and a full day over land would have weakened the storm to a major degree.

As to your comparison with tornadoes, your point is even more valid with Dorian, because the storm has slowed down, and therefore its devastation and effects will be more long-lasting.
 

AlwaysWrite

Well-Known Member
#20
Weather channel makes few predictions. The predictions come from the national hurricane center.
Dear djarum300:

I'm well aware that The Weather Channel gets most of its hurricane information from the Hurricane Center. However, TWC does have so-called weather "experts" on its staff, and I stand behind all of the comments (and opinions) I have posted in this thread.
 
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