All you need to know? NOT!

Djarum300

Well-Known Member
#21
Dear djarum300:

I'm well aware that The Weather Channel gets most of its hurricane information from the Hurricane Center. However, TWC does have so-called weather "experts" on its staff, and I stand behind all of the comments (and opinions) I have posted in this thread.
Those experts are either restating the model information, explaining why one model does one thing vs another, or discussing the interaction of the hurricane between the various systems driving it.

Dorian as it is now is in the cone where all of Florida was in the 5 day advisory. It's actually pretty dead center of the 5 day advisory. The 5 day advisory cone is 200 miles wide. If Dorian takes the current track as of 8 am, it would still be in the 5 day cone issued last week where all of Florida is in the 5 day cone. All of Florida was never in the 3 day cone.

As far as the weather channel, I gave up on them years ago when they got bought by NBC. My folks in Jacksonville use the nhc statements and local meteorologist. They were the first ones to warn, over a day before the weather channel, about the flooding Irma would cause in the St. John's as TWC was forecasting minimal effects to Jacksonville.


TWC overhypes before landfall and gets it wrong half the time once it does.

Come info
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

Dorian cone archive
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
 

AlwaysWrite

Well-Known Member
#22
Dear djarum300:

Don't forget that early on, the forecasts called for the storm to interact with the mountains of eastern Hispaniola, after which time it would weaken substantially and perhaps almost fizzle out entirely. But obviously, Dorian got nowhere near Hispaniola, and obviously it didn't weaken.
 
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